Durham Region Winter Market Report 2024

The Durham Region real estate market ends 2024 in a fundamentally different position than where it started. The Bank of Canada cut rates multiple times through the year, buyer confidence returned gradually, and by the fourth quarter, the market had shifted from a clear buyer's market to something closer to balanced. Here is our year-end review.

Average home prices in Durham Region for 2024 were relatively stable compared to 2023, with slight year-over-year increases in most municipalities. Oshawa and Clarington continued to offer the best entry-level pricing, while Pickering and Whitby maintained their premium positioning.

The more telling metric is the trend line through the year. Prices were soft in Q1 and Q2, stabilized in Q3, and showed modest upward pressure in Q4 as rate cuts brought more buyers back. The homes that sold above asking in Q4 were almost exclusively well-prepared, well-priced listings in high-demand neighbourhoods.

Total sales volume for 2024 was up compared to 2023, with the gains concentrated in the second half of the year. The Q4 pickup was the strongest signal that the market is turning a corner. More homes sold, they sold faster, and the list-to-sale price ratio tightened across all municipalities.

First-time buyers drove much of the activity in the under-$700,000 segment, while move-up buyers became more active in the $800,000 to $1.2 million range as rate cuts made qualifying easier.

Active inventory ended the year lower than where it peaked in the spring and summer. The months of inventory metric, which measures how long it would take to sell all current listings at the current pace of sales, dropped from around five months in Q2 to approximately three months in Q4. Below four months typically indicates a market favouring sellers.

The decline in inventory heading into winter 2024 sets up a potentially competitive spring 2025. If rate cuts continue and inventory remains low, we could see a return to multiple-offer scenarios on well-priced listings.

The much-discussed mortgage renewal wall is now arriving. Homeowners who locked in at historically low rates in 2020 and 2021 are beginning to renew at rates that are significantly higher. While the Bank of Canada's rate cuts have softened the blow, many homeowners will still see meaningful increases in their monthly payments.

Some of these homeowners will sell, adding inventory to the market. How many depends on the pace and magnitude of further rate cuts in 2025. This is the single biggest variable to watch heading into the new year.

We expect 2025 to be a year of gradual market strengthening in Durham Region. The combination of continued rate cuts, population growth, and constrained new supply points toward rising prices, though the pace will depend on how much additional inventory enters the market from mortgage renewals and deferred sellers.

For sellers, the message is clear: prepare your home now and be ready to list when the spring market opens. For buyers, the best deals are likely available right now, before the spring wave of competition. If you want to discuss your specific situation, we are here to help with honest, data-backed advice.