Durham Region Fall Market Update 2022

The spring of 2022 will be remembered as the moment the music stopped. After two years of relentless price growth fuelled by historically low interest rates, the Bank of Canada began raising rates in March. By September, the overnight rate had climbed from 0.25% to 3.25%, and Durham Region's real estate market had undergone its sharpest correction in a generation.

Now, heading into fall, the dust is beginning to settle. Here is what the numbers actually show and what they mean for sellers and buyers in Durham Region.

The average sale price for a detached home in Durham Region dropped roughly 20% to 25% from the February 2022 peak. That sounds dramatic, and it is. But it is also important to remember where the peak was. Prices in early 2022 were 40% to 60% above pre-pandemic levels. The correction brought prices back to roughly mid-2021 levels, which were themselves well above any historical norm.

In Oshawa, the average detached sale price in September 2022 settled around $700,000 to $720,000, down from a peak near $900,000. Whitby held slightly higher, with averages in the $850,000 to $880,000 range. Ajax and Pickering saw similar proportional declines. Bowmanville and Courtice, which had seen some of the most aggressive pandemic-era price growth, experienced the steepest percentage drops.

The clearest sign of a shifting market is not price. It is time. In February 2022, the average days on market for a detached home in Durham was 6 to 8 days. In September, that number is 25 to 35 days, depending on the municipality and price point.

This is still a functional market. Homes are selling. But the era of listing on Thursday and having 12 offers by Monday is over for now. Buyers have time to think, to negotiate, and to walk away. Sellers who price correctly and prepare their homes well are still seeing strong results. Sellers who list at February prices are sitting.

If you are selling this fall in Durham Region, pricing is everything. The gap between a well-priced, well-prepared home and an overpriced, under-prepared one is enormous right now. A home priced correctly will still attract motivated buyers. A home priced 5% too high will sit for weeks and eventually sell below what it would have fetched with a smarter opening price.

Preparation matters more than it has in two years. When buyers had no choices, they bought anything. Now they have choices. Professional photography, staging, and strategic renovation are no longer optional. They are the difference between selling in 15 days and sitting for 60.

This is the first real window of opportunity for Durham Region buyers since before the pandemic. Inventory is higher, competition is lower, and many sellers are motivated. If you have been priced out for the past two years, this fall is worth a serious look.

The challenge is affordability. Even with prices down 20% to 25%, the rate increases mean your monthly payment on a $750,000 home is roughly the same as it would have been on a $900,000 home in February at the old rates. The math has shifted, not necessarily improved. Get pre-approved, know your real monthly numbers, and do not stretch beyond what is comfortable.

The Bank of Canada has signalled more rate increases are likely before year-end. We expect prices to remain relatively stable through fall and into winter, with the possibility of another 5% to 10% softening if rates climb past 4%. The spring 2023 market will be the real test: if rates stabilize and buyer confidence returns, Durham Region's correction may already be behind us. If rates continue climbing, the adjustment has further to go.

Whatever happens with rates and prices, one thing is consistent: the homes that sell fastest and for the most money are the ones that are prepared properly. That has been true in every market we have worked through, and it will be true in this one.