Durham Region Fall Market Report 2024

The fall 2024 market in Durham Region looks meaningfully different from spring. The Bank of Canada cut rates multiple times through the summer and fall, and the effect on buyer sentiment has been immediate. Showings are up, offers are more competitive, and the inventory that built up in the spring is being absorbed more quickly. Here is what the numbers show.

Sales volume in Durham Region for September and October 2024 was up compared to the same months in 2023. The increase is most pronounced in the under-$800,000 range, where first-time buyers who had been sidelined by rate hikes are now re-entering the market. The $800,000 to $1.2 million range also saw increased activity as move-up buyers gained confidence from the rate trajectory.

Multiple-offer situations, while not as common as the 2021 and 2022 frenzy, are reappearing on well-priced, well-presented listings. We had several listings this fall receive multiple offers within the first week.

The inventory buildup from spring and summer has started to stabilize. New listings are still coming to market at a healthy pace, but absorption rates have improved, meaning homes are selling faster than they were six months ago. The months of inventory, a key measure of market balance, has dropped from roughly five months in the spring to around three and a half months in the fall.

A balanced market in Ontario is typically considered to be around four to six months of inventory. We are approaching the lower end of that range, which means the market is tilting back toward sellers, though it has not reached seller's market territory yet.

Average sale prices across Durham Region in the fall of 2024 were flat to slightly up compared to spring 2024 and modestly up compared to fall 2023. Oshawa, Clarington, and east Durham continue to offer the best value, while Whitby and Pickering hold their price premiums.

The more notable trend is the narrowing gap between list price and sale price. Earlier in the year, sellers were routinely accepting offers 3 to 5% below asking. That gap has tightened to 1 to 2% on well-priced listings, and some properties are selling at or above asking again.

The mortgage renewal wall is the biggest factor to watch. A significant number of homeowners who locked in at low rates in 2020 and 2021 will renew in 2025 at substantially higher rates. Some will absorb the higher payments. Others will need to sell. This could add inventory to the market just as buyer demand is recovering.

The interplay between rate cuts bringing buyers back and renewals forcing some sellers to list will define the 2025 market. For now, the trajectory favours a gradually strengthening market through the winter and into the spring.

For sellers: the fall market is stronger than it was six months ago, and the data suggests spring 2025 could be even stronger. If your home is ready, listing now puts you ahead of the competition that is waiting for spring. If your home needs work, use the winter months to prepare.

For buyers: the window of peak negotiating power is closing. You still have more leverage than you did in 2021 or 2022, but the trend line is clear. Every rate cut brings more buyers back into the market. If you are qualified and you find the right home, do not wait for a deal that may never arrive.