Durham Region Fall Market Report 2023

After a spring and summer of relative stability, Durham Region's real estate market is entering the fall season with cautious optimism. Average sale prices across the region have held steady compared to last year, and inventory levels are starting to normalize after the volatility of 2022.

The Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions continue to be the dominant factor shaping buyer behaviour. With rates holding at elevated levels, buyers are more cautious, pre-approvals are tighter, and the days of 20+ competing offers on every listing are behind us. That said, well-priced, well-presented homes in desirable neighbourhoods are still selling quickly and at strong prices.

Detached homes across Durham Region averaged approximately $850,000 to $900,000 in August 2023, depending on the municipality. Oshawa remains the most affordable entry point for detached homes, with averages in the $700,000 to $750,000 range. Whitby and Ajax sit in the $900,000 to $1,000,000 range, while Pickering trends slightly higher.

Semi-detached and townhouse prices have shown the most resilience, averaging $650,000 to $750,000 across the region. These property types continue to attract first-time buyers and investors alike.

Condo prices remain relatively stable at $450,000 to $550,000, though higher interest rates have cooled investor demand in the condo segment specifically.

Average days on market in Durham Region have increased to 20 to 30 days, up from the 7 to 14 days we saw during the peak market. This is a healthier pace that gives buyers more time to make informed decisions and gives sellers realistic expectations about timelines.

Active listings are up compared to a year ago, which means buyers have more choice. For sellers, this increased competition makes presentation, pricing, and marketing strategy more important than ever. The margin for error on listing price has narrowed significantly.

If you are selling this fall, price accurately from day one. Overpricing and hoping for a bidding war is a strategy that worked in 2021 but fails in 2023. Homes that sit on the market for more than 30 days develop a stigma that is hard to overcome, even with price reductions.

Presentation matters more now than it did during the peak market. Professional photography, staging, and pre-listing repairs are no longer optional extras. They are baseline requirements for a successful sale. Homes that are move-in ready still command premium prices. Homes that need work are being discounted more aggressively than at any point in the last five years.

Fall is historically one of the best times to buy in Durham Region. Seller motivation tends to increase as the holiday season approaches, and inventory that has been on the market through summer often becomes more negotiable.

Buyers who are pre-approved and ready to move quickly still have an advantage, especially on new listings in the first week. But there is also more room for conditions (financing, inspection) than there was during the peak market, which reduces risk for buyers.

If you have been waiting on the sidelines for rates to drop, keep in mind that lower rates will likely bring more buyers back into the market, which increases competition and drives prices higher. The saying 'marry the house, date the rate' has real merit in a market like this.

We expect the fall market to be steady but not spectacular. Sellers with realistic expectations and strong marketing will do well. Buyers with patience and solid pre-approvals will find good opportunities. The days of easy money in real estate are over, but the fundamentals in Durham Region remain strong: population growth, relative affordability compared to Toronto, and ongoing infrastructure investment.

If you want to know what your specific property is worth in today's market, or if you are a buyer trying to figure out the right time to move, we are happy to provide a detailed analysis based on current data. No pressure, just numbers.